TIME: Almanac 1990/1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso/time/030689/03068900.025

Text File | 1990-09-17 | 6KB | 100 lines

WORLD, Page 40

MIDDLE EAST

Enter the Soviet Union

Shevardnadze steps in where the U.S. hesitates to tread


    The timing was astute. While Washington chose to go slow on
Middle East diplomacy, Moscow accelerated its activity. Last week
Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze was on a ten-day sally
through five countries, leaving deep tracks everywhere he touched
down.

    At his first stop, in Syria, Shevardnadze unveiled a three-step
proposal to convene an international Middle East peace conference
under the auspices of the United Nations. He took the plan to
Jordan and Egypt for an approving welcome. And before proceeding
on to Iran and Iraq, Shevardnadze spent four days in Cairo for a
bit of showmanship that could not help grabbing headlines:
back-to-back meetings with Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens and
Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat.

    What fresh ideas was the new thinking Soviet Foreign Minister
promoting? Not many. Shevardnadze's peace proposal was largely
procedural, reiterating an idea that has been floating around the
region for several years and is widely endorsed by most of the
relevant parties, except Israel. But as a public relations ploy,
the trip was effective. Shevardnadze amply demonstrated Moscow's
intention to break Washington's monopoly as the peace broker in the
Middle East. With his shrewd charm and flair for appearing to
generate goodwill, Shevardnadze sent a new breeze through the
Middle East -- a breeze that George Bush promised would come from
the U.S. Indeed, while the Soviets were launching their most
important Middle East diplomatic initiative in more than a decade,
the Bush Administration was bogged down in a review of 28 foreign
policy areas, including the Middle East.

    The contrast between Moscow's splash and Washington's plodding
was reinforced by the rhetoric on both sides. While Shevardnadze
warned that the Middle East "could be climbing the unpredictable
ladder of nuclear escalation," Secretary of State James Baker
asserted in a television interview, "I don't think it's (an area)
that if it incubates further, it blows up." Somewhat testily, Bush
also applied the brakes: "I don't want to be stampeded by the fact
that the Soviet Foreign Minister takes a trip to the Middle East."
Though he praised Shevardnadze's trip as a "good thing," the
President reiterated that the Soviet role in the region "should be
limited." Shevardnadze had a canny response: "This is very sad
because it injects an element of rivalry that is unnecessary."
Then, with a smile, he added, "This is my first critical remark
about the President of the United States."

    The most dramatic moments of Shevardnadze's trip were saved for
his 2 1/2-hour meeting with Arens. Building on a flirtation that
began several years ago, the two Foreign Ministers made history by
holding their meeting on Arab soil. They pledged to continue their
bilateral courtship at a high diplomatic level, though they
accomplished nothing concrete that would further the peace process.
On specifics, they had little in common. Shevardnadze pressed Arens
to drop Israel's opposition to an international peace conference
and talk to the P.L.O. Arens replied by urging Shevardnadze to sign
on to Jerusalem's preference for direct talks with the other Arabs,
sponsored by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Later, Shevardnadze
warned that Moscow would not resume diplomatic ties with Israel
until Jerusalem accepted an international forum. Arens said
restoring relations was not a precondition, but Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir insisted that normalization still must precede a
larger Soviet role in Middle East diplomacy.

    Nonetheless, the diplomatic flurry had other modest symbolic
achievements: Arens met with President Hosni Mubarak, marking the
first time since 1982 that an Egyptian leader has been willing to
talk with a member of Israel's right-wing Likud bloc. That very act
seemed to signal some thaw in the "cold peace" that prevails
between the two countries. Shevardnadze's revival of the
international-conference proposal skillfully shored up the Arab
moderates who have long advocated it, and his presence in Cairo,
the first visit by a Soviet Foreign Minister since 1975,
invigorated long-dormant Soviet influence in Egypt.

    Ultimately, Moscow was probably the big winner from the trip.
If Shevardnadze's journey actually did little to nudge the mired
peace process, it helped the Soviets gain a larger role in the
region. Even the Israelis seemed to accept their presence, despite
long-standing fears that a higher Soviet profile could bring
unwanted pressures to bear. Said Galia Golan, a professor at Hebrew
University: "Israel is treating the Soviet Union as virtually a
factor equal to the United States."

    More important, the Soviet initiative reinforced an emerging
consensus in the Middle East that the conflict can no longer be
ignored.  "The postponements have ended," said a Cairo-based
diplomat. "Now, either there will be progress toward peace or there
will be a moment of truth that the gaps between the parties cannot
be bridged."

    Nothing in last week's diplomacy suggested a way out of the
substantive stalemate: how to bring both Israel and the
Palestinians to the bargaining table. No one believes Moscow can
single-handedly make peace. Any hope of overcoming that logjam
still requires American influence. "The Arabs and the Soviets know
that until the United States joins the game, there is no game,"
says a U.S. Administration official. Then perhaps Moscow's
aggressiveness will spur the idling Bush Administration.